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An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Author

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  • Mangal Goswami
  • Oya Celasun

Abstract

This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02 represents a structural break in the data. A long-run money market equilibrium condition is identified and the short-run behavior of the inflation, measured in terms of non-administered component of the consumer price index (CPI) is modeled conditional on the disequilibria in the money market. Estimation results indicate that the stabilization of the exchange rate on account of strong oil revenues during 2000/01-2001/02 buoyed the demand for domestic money and contributed to the decline in inflation. Tests of model stability do not point to a structural shift in the inflation equation during the period of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mangal Goswami & Oya Celasun, 2002. "An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 02/205, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. O. Liu & Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2000. "Determinants of Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran; A Macroeconomic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/127, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    4. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    2. Gabriel Di Bella & David Hauner, 2005. "How Useful is Monetary Econometrics in Low-Income Countries? T+L3104he Case of Money Demand and the Multipliers in Rwanda," IMF Working Papers 05/178, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Amin Yousefi-Sahzabi & Kyuro Sasaki & Hossein Yousefi & Yuichi Sugai, 2011. "CO 2 emission and economic growth of Iran," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 63-82, January.
    4. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants Of Inflation In Gcc," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 141-158.
    5. Saade CHAMI & Selim ELEKDAG & Todd SCHNEIDER & Nabil BEN LTAIFA, 2008. "Can A Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work In A Developing Country? The Case Of Yemen," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(1), pages 75-99.
    6. Kandil Magda & Mirzaie Ida A., 2017. "Iran’s Inflationary Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, and Supply Constraints," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Bonato Leo, 2008. "Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 41-58, January.
    8. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    9. Dizaji, S.F., 2011. "Analysis of domestic price and inflation determinants in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 530, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    10. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 05/236, International Monetary Fund.

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