Money Demand in the Euro Area; Where Do We Stand (Today)?
The paper reviews the stability of long-run money demand in the euro area in the light of recent revisions to M3 data. The analysis confirms the existence of a stable long-run money demand, although the estimated equation implies a smaller equilibrium M3 growth than the European Central Bank's reference value of 4Â½ percent. The stability of long-run money demand does not imply that the market is always in equilibrium. Indeed, it is argued that periods of disequilibrium can be long and adjustment slow. The paper shows that the difference between the low estimated equilibrium growth rate and the actual growth rate for M3 can be explained by a velocity shock, identified here as the sharp fall in equity prices in the last two years. These characteristics of the money market-summarized in the events of the last two years-would call for an alternative approach in the communication of monetary policy developments, essentially putting less emphasis on month-to-month developments in M3.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000.
"The First Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?,"
NBER Working Papers
7598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "The First Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 95-99, May.
- Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The first Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?," Seminar Papers 681, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The First Year Of The Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting Or Not?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Mizen, Paul D, 1998.
"Inflation Targeting: What can the ECB Learn from the Recent Experience of the Bank of England,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Artis, Michael J & Mizen, Paul & Kontolemis, Zenon, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: What Can the ECB Learn from the Recent Experience of the Bank of England?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1810-25, November.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001.
"The demand for M3 in the euro area,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
- Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
- Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
- Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004.
"Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
- Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2002. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0119, European Central Bank.
- Benedict J. Clements & Zenon Kontolemis & Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under EMU; Differences in the Transmission Mechanism?," IMF Working Papers 01/102, International Monetary Fund.
- Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Carlo Monticelli & Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 1992.
"European integration and the demand for broad money,"
BIS Working Papers
18, Bank for International Settlements.
- Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(4), pages 345-66, December.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Roisin O'Sullivan, 2002.
"Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
8700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand; Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.