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An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa

  • Ashok Bhundia
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    This paper analyzes the degree to which fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate passthrough to consumer prices in South Africa. While the average pass-through is found to be low, evidence from a structural vector autoregression suggests it is much higher for nominal (versus real) shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that the nominal exchange rate depreciation up to November 2001 is attributable primarily to negative real shocks, which explains why CPIX (consumer price index excluding interest on mortgate bonds) inflation did not increase significantly until December 2001, when positive nominal shocks began to contribute to the depreciation.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/165.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/165
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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    2. Athukorala, Premachandra & Menon, Jayant, 1994. "Pricing to Market Behaviour and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 271-81, March.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
    5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    7. Enrique Alberola & Juan Ayuso & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2000. "When may depreciations fuel inflation? An application to the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1037-1049.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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