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Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications; A Framework for Analysis

  • Hamid Faruqee

This paper develops a model to examine the macroeconomic implications of population aging. Using a general equilibrium framework, the analysis examines the various channels through which changes in demographics affect the economy. Age-earnings profiles are taken to summarize differences in effective labor supply across age groups and to help determine changes in consumption and saving behavior that occur over an agent's lifetime. Aggregating these supply- and demand-side effects, the implications of aging on economic activity and fiscal policy are then examined.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/16.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/16
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  1. Orazio Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption," IFS Working Papers W95/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
  3. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
  4. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1989. "How Strong are Bequest Motives? Evidence Based on Estimates of the Demand for Life Insurance and Annuities," NBER Working Papers 2942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
  6. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-32, August.
  7. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
  8. B. Douglas Bernheim & Kyle Bagwell, 1986. "Is Everything Neutral?," NBER Working Papers 2086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-Specific Mortality," IMF Working Papers 02/19, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hamid Faruqee & Aasim M. Husain, 1995. "Saving Trends in Southeast Asia; A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 95/39, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Martin Feldstein, 1979. "International Differences in Social Security and Saving," NBER Working Papers 0355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Martin Mühleisen & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Population Aging in Japan; Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 01/40, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Steven A. Symansky & Douglas Laxton & Hamid Faruqee, 1996. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains; Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Working Papers 96/140, International Monetary Fund.
  14. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
  16. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings; Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  19. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-91, September.
  20. Bo[dieresis]s, Dieter & von Weizsa[dieresis]cker, Robert K., 1989. "Economic consequences of an aging population," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 345-354, March.
  21. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June.
  22. Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
  23. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  24. David N. Weil, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81.
  25. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-77, June.
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