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Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications; A Framework for Analysis

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Listed author(s):
  • Hamid Faruqee

Abstract

This paper develops a model to examine the macroeconomic implications of population aging. Using a general equilibrium framework, the analysis examines the various channels through which changes in demographics affect the economy. Age-earnings profiles are taken to summarize differences in effective labor supply across age groups and to help determine changes in consumption and saving behavior that occur over an agent's lifetime. Aggregating these supply- and demand-side effects, the implications of aging on economic activity and fiscal policy are then examined.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/16.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2002
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/16
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Keywords: Current account; Fiscal policy; Population; Population Aging; saving; birth rate; birth; birth ? rate; birth rates; population growth; Macroeconomics: Consumption; Production; Employment; and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation; Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household;

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  1. David N. Weil, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81.
  2. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  4. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
  5. Attanasio, Orazio P, et al, 1999. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 22-35, January.
  6. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "How Strong Are Bequest Motives? Evidence Based on Estimates of the Demand for Life Insurance and Annuities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 899-927, October.
  7. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-577, June.
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income, and Liquidity Constraints: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 374-382, September.
  9. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "International differences in social security and saving," NBER Chapters,in: Econometric Studies in Public Finance, pages 225-244 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-338, April.
  11. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings; Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
  14. Bo[dieresis]s, Dieter & von Weizsa[dieresis]cker, Robert K., 1989. "Economic consequences of an aging population," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 345-354, March.
  15. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
  16. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  17. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April.
  18. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
  19. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
  20. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
  21. Hamid Faruqee & Aasim M. Husain, 1995. "Saving Trends in Southeast Asia; A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 95/39, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-293, June.
  23. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-791, September.
  24. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
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Cited by:

  1. Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan & Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2015. "Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 186-212.
  2. Mao, Rui & Xu, Jianwei, 2014. "Population aging, consumption budget allocation and sectoral growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 44-65.
  3. Hamid Faruqee & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging," IMF Working Papers 06/95, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April.
  5. Seitz, Helmut & Freigang, Dirk & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  6. Juergen Jung & Chung Tran & Matthew Chambers, 2016. "Aging and Health Financing in the US:A General Equilibrium Analysis," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-641, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  7. Jong-Won Yoon & Jinill Kim & Jungjin Lee, 2014. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," IMF Working Papers 14/210, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Dora M Iakova, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Migration from the New European Union Member States to the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 07/61, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
  10. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Lamin Y Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Mukesh Chawla & Gordon Betcherman & Arup Banerji, 2007. "From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6741, August.

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