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Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications; A Framework for Analysis

  • Hamid Faruqee

This paper develops a model to examine the macroeconomic implications of population aging. Using a general equilibrium framework, the analysis examines the various channels through which changes in demographics affect the economy. Age-earnings profiles are taken to summarize differences in effective labor supply across age groups and to help determine changes in consumption and saving behavior that occur over an agent's lifetime. Aggregating these supply- and demand-side effects, the implications of aging on economic activity and fiscal policy are then examined.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/16.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/16
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  1. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "International differences in social security and saving," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Studies in Public Finance, pages 225-244 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Lawrence H. Summers, 1980. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 0445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
  5. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June.
  6. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Orazio Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption," IFS Working Papers W95/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  10. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-Specific Mortality," IMF Working Papers 02/19, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Discussion Papers 96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  12. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "How Strong Are Bequest Motives? Evidence Based on Estimates of the Demand for Life Insurance and Annuities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 899-927, October.
  13. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-91, September.
  14. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings; Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Hamid Faruqee & Aasim M. Husain, 1995. "Saving Trends in Southeast Asia; A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 95/39, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
  18. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
  19. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-77, June.
  20. Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-38, April.
  21. Martin Mühleisen & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Population Aging in Japan; Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 01/40, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1995. "The Nature of Precautionary Wealth," NBER Working Papers 5193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Bo[dieresis]s, Dieter & von Weizsa[dieresis]cker, Robert K., 1989. "Economic consequences of an aging population," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 345-354, March.
  24. Steven A. Symansky & Douglas Laxton & Hamid Faruqee, 1996. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains; Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Working Papers 96/140, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Weil, David N, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81, February.
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