Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This paper analyses the fiscal effects of armed conflict and terrorism on low- and middle-income countries. An analysis of 22 conflict episodes shows that armed conflict is associated with lower growth and higher inflation, and has adverse effects on tax revenues and investment. It also leads to higher government spending on defense, but this tends to be at the expense of macroeconomic stability rather than at the cost of lower spending on education and health. Our econometric estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that conflict and terrorism have a significant negative impact on growth through changes in the composition of government spending. On the revenue side, the fiscal accounts are affected only through reduced real economic activity. Thus there is potential for a sizable "peace dividend" for countries that are able to resolve conflict and terrorism.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Volker Nitsch & Dieter Schumacher, 2003. "Terrorism and Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 353, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996.
"Political Instability and Economic Growth,"
4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bevan, David L., 2001. "The Fiscal Dimensions of Ethiopia's Transition and Reconstruction," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Sule Ozler & Guido Tabellini, 1991.
"External Debt and Political Instability,"
NBER Working Papers
3772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2001.
"The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country,"
Working Paper Series
rwp01-048, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2001. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country," NBER Working Papers 8478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dani Rodrik, 1998.
"Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses,"
NBER Working Papers
6350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1998. "Where Did all the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict and Growth Collapses," CEPR Discussion Papers 1789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Economic and political determinants of budget deficits in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S49-S72, March.
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Bart Hobijn, 2002. "What will homeland security cost?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Nov, pages 21-33.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.
- Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-80, January.
- Malcolm D. Knight & Delano Villanueva & Norman Loayza, 1995.
"The Peace Dividend; Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
95/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
- Knight, Malcolm & Loayza, Norman & Villanueva, Delano, 1996. "The peace dividend : military spending cuts and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1577, The World Bank.
- Venieris, Yiannis P & Gupta, Dipak K, 1986. "Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-sectional Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 873-83, August.
- Nisha Arunatilake & Sisira Kumara Jayasuriya & Saman Kelegama, 1999.
"The Economic Cost of the War in Sri Lanka,"
1999.10, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993.
"Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
- Ndikumana, Leonce, 2001. "Fiscal Policy, Conflict, and Reconstruction in Burundi and Rwanda," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
- Addison, Tony & Murshed, S. Mansoob, 2001. "The Fiscal Dimensions of Conflict and Reconstruction," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- By Davoodi & Benedict Clements & Jerald Schiff & Peter Debaere, 2001. "Military Spending, the Peace Dividend, and Fiscal Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 4.
- Alex Cukierman & Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1989.
"Seigniorage and Political Instability,"
NBER Working Papers
3199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jerald A Schiff & Tamim Bayoumi & Daniel P. Hewitt, 1993. "Economic Consequences of Lower Military Spending; Some Simulation Results," IMF Working Papers 93/17, International Monetary Fund.
- Gupta, Sanjeev & de Mello, Luiz & Sharan, Raju, 2001. "Corruption and military spending," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 749-777, November.
- Addison, Tony & Chowdhury, Abdur R. & Murshed, S. Mansoob, 2002. "By How Much Does Conflict Reduce Financial Development?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.