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Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?

  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Ludvig Söderling
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    This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/131.

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    Length: 37
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/131
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    1. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Dorsati Madani & Tzu-Han Yang & Chi-Yuan Liang, 1997. "Testing Endogenous Growth in South Korea and Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 6028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
    4. Berthelemy, Jean-Claude & Varoudakis, Aristomene, 1996. "Economic Growth, Convergence Clubs, and the Role of Financial Development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 300-328, April.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1993. "A new database on human capital stock : sources, methodology and results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1124, The World Bank.
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