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Lithuania; History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement

  • International Monetary Fund
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    The paper examines the evolution of the institutional setup of Lithuania's Currency Board Arrangement (CBA) and competitiveness from 1994 through 2001, with a view to determining the resilience of the Lithuanian CBA to external shocks in 2002-03. First, several indicators of competitiveness are analyzed in the context of productivity gains and flexibility of the labor market and prices are considered. Then, the equilibrium exchange rate and misalignments of the actual rate from it are estimated in a cointegration framework. The paper concludes that, under current policies, the CBA would be able to cope with sizable external shocks during 2002-03 provided supporting policies remain in place.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/127.

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    Length: 35
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/127
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    1. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
    2. Alicia García-Herrero, 1997. "Monetary Impact of a Banking Crisis and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 97/124, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the Business Cycle: a Modified Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9912, Banco de Espa�a.
    5. Charles Enoch & Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1997. "Currency Board Arrangements; Issues and Experiences," IMF Occasional Papers 151, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    7. repec:imf:imfpdp:9601 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
    9. Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747 Elsevier.
    12. Maravall, Agustin, 1993. "Stochastic linear trends : Models and estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 5-37, March.
    13. Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 1287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
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