IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/02-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Balances and All That; Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Nigel A Chalk

Abstract

Structural indicators of a country's fiscal position are regularly used as estimates of both discretionary changes in fiscal policy and the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate demand. This paper looks at such indicators and evaluates, from a theoretical standpoint and from empirical case studies, their usefulness in measuring the size of discretionary policy action or fiscal demand stimulus. Two propositions are examined in detail: first, that the change in the primary structural balance provides a better indicator of discretionary fiscal policy than does the change in the primary balance; and second, that the change in the structural balance is a good indicator of the demand stimulus arising from changes in the fiscal position. In addition, the paper discusses measurement problems relating to structural balances and the use of the fiscal impulse as an alternative to structural balances.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel A Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That; Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 02/101, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15762
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Braconier, Henrik & Holden, Steinar, 1999. "The Public Budget Balance - Fiscal Indicators and Cyclical Sensitivity in the Nordic Countries," Working Papers 67, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
    4. Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Restoring Japan's Economic Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 35.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    6. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    7. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance The IMF’s Methodology," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap; An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Agnello & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 43-85, June.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Guyana; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/293, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Daniel S Kanda, 2011. "Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/164, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gábor P. Kiss, 2007. "One-off and off-budget items: An alternative approach," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 18-27, December.
    5. Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, 2008. "Fiscal Positions in Latin America; Have They Really Improved?," IMF Working Papers 08/137, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lina María Vásquez & Luis Edgar Basto, 2004. "Balance estructural, dinámica y volatilidad de la deuda," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(46-1), pages 26-81, Diciembre.
    7. Maria Neycheva, 2005. "The Impact of the Fisc on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Bulgarian Economy," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 42-59.
    8. Renee Philip & John Janssen, 2002. "Indicators of Fiscal Impulse for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/30, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. Nigel Stapledon, 2011. "The Benefits (and Costs) of Foresight and Hindsight in Macro Policy Formulation," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 41-52.
    10. P. Kiss, Gábor & Vadas, Gábor, 2005. "Légy résen! Az államháztartási egyenleg ciklikus igazítása
      [Be on your guard! Cyclically adjusted budget deficit]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 109-129.
    11. Mati, Amine & Thornton, John, 2008. "The exchange rate and fiscal consolidation episodes in emerging market economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 115-118, July.
    12. Richard M. Bird, 2003. "Fiscal Flows, Fiscal Balance, and Fiscal Sustainability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0302, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.