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The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana

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  • Silvia Sgherri
  • Maitland MacFarlan

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 5½ percent a year without the pandemic to between 1½ and 2½ percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/80
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    1. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Further Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS: The Dualistic, Labor-Surplus Economy," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(3), pages 403-417, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    2. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:5:p:843-860 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 02/195, International Monetary Fund.
    4. John Anyanwu & Ejikeme Okonkwo & Yaovi Gassesse Siliadin, 2012. "Working Paper 148 - Role of Fiscal Policy in Tackling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Southern Africa," Working Paper Series 380, African Development Bank.
    5. Robalino, David A. & Jenkins, Carol & El Maroufi, Karim, 2002. "Risks and macroeconomic impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : why waiting to intervene can be costly," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2874, The World Bank.
    6. Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(5), pages 697-715.
    7. Vijay P. Ojha & Basanta K. Pradhan, 2006. "The Macro-Economic and Sectoral Impacts of HIV and AIDS in India," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22134, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Joana Godinho & Thomas Novotny & Hiwote Tadesse & Anatoly Vinokur, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis in Central Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15061.
    9. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2002. "AIDS and Income Distribution in Africa; A Micro-simulation Study for Côte d'Ivoire," Working Papers DT/2002/15, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    10. Kenneth Harttgen, 2007. "The Impact of HIV on Children´s Welfare," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 157, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    12. Judith Kabajulizi, 2013. "Macroeconomic Implications Of Health Sector Reforms In Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," EcoMod2013 5158, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Botswana; Economic growth; Investment; Social policy; aids; informal sector; hiv/aids; hiv; health spending; One; Two; and Multisector Growth Models; Economywide Country Studies: Africa;

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