The Fall and Recovery of the Cuban Economy in the 1990's; Mirage or Reality?
The collapse of the Cuban economy following the cessation of Soviet assistance gave way to a strong recovery in 1994-96. There are three possible explanations for this recovery: (i) that it never took place; (ii) that it reflected a surge in productivity resulting from stabilization and liberalization in 1993-94; or (iii) that it resulted from a favorable aggregate demand shock. The second explanation-the most persuasive-suggests that a strong and durable expansion will probably not be achieved on the basis of present policies, but that the benefits of a full liberalization of the economy are likely to be considerable.
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- Wenli Li & Zuzana Brixiova & Tarik Yousef, 1999. "Skill Acquisition and Firm Creation in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 99/130, International Monetary Fund.
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