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International Financial Contagion and the Fund; A Theoretical Framework

  • Peter B. Clark
  • Haizhou Huang

We provide a model of contagion where countries borrow or lend for consumption smoothing at the market interest rate or a lower IMF rate. Highly indebted countries hit by large negative shocks to output will default. The resulting reduction in loanable funds raises interest rates, increases the vulnerability of other indebted countries, and can generate further rounds of defaults. In this environment the IMF can limit default and internalize the externality generated by contagion through its lending with conditionality. We characterize the IMF's optimal lending decision in mitigating the loss in world consumption.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/137.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/137
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  1. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "International Bailouts, Moral Hazard, and Conditionality," CESifo Working Paper Series 563, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1998. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: the Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," CEPR Discussion Papers 1820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. C. A. E. Goodhart & H. Huang, 2000. "A Simple Model of an International Lender of Last Resort," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11, 02.
  4. Haizhou Huang & C. A. E. Goodhart, 2000. "A Simple Model of An International Lender of Last Resort," IMF Working Papers 00/75, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Haizhou Huang & Chenggang Xu, 2000. "Financial Institutions, Financial Contagion, and Financial Crises," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 316, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Michael Mussa & Morris Goldstein, 1993. "The integration of world capital markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-330.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? a Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/169, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Kenneth M. Kletzer & Brian D. Wright, 2000. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," International Finance 0003004, EconWPA.
  9. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 5817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tabellini, Guido & Alesina, Alberto, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," Scholarly Articles 3612769, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  12. Michael Mussa, 1999. "Reforming the International Financial Architecture: Limiting Moral Hazard and Containing Real Hazard," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple Equilibria, Contagion, and the Emerging Market Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/164, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Manmohan S. Kumar & Paul R. Masson & Marcus Miller, 2000. "Global Financial Crises; Institutions and Incentives," IMF Working Papers 00/105, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March.
  16. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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