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Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite; Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence

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  • Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Avinash Persaud

Abstract

This paper discusses a "pure" form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals - investors' shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors' risk appetite and discusses whether it is possible to directly measure them in a way that can enable policy makers to differentiate between financial contagion and domestic fundamentals as the immediate source of a crisis. Daily measures of risk appetite are computed and their usefulness in predicting financial crises is assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Manmohan S. Kumar & Avinash Persaud, 2001. "Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite; Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/134, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/134
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    Cited by:

    1. FitzGerald, Valpy, 2002. "The Instability of the Emerging Market Assets Demand Schedule," WIDER Working Paper Series 080, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Bunda, Irina & Hamann, A. Javier & Lall, Subir, 2009. "Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 67-96, June.
    3. Philippe Dupuy, 2009. "Pure Indicator Of Risk Appetite," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 18-33, March.
    4. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2004. "Modelling the demand for emerging market assets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Measuring Contagion With A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Sukriye Tuysuz, 2012. "How have the Turkish post-2001 stabilization reforms impacted on the conditional correlation between the Turkish and the main foreign stock markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(22), pages 1881-1898, November.
    8. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2003. "Characterizing Global Investors' Risk Appetite for Emerging Market Debt During Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/251, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin & Renee Fry & Mardi Dungey, 2003. "Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences; The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998," IMF Working Papers 03/84, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Edina Berlinger & Barbara Dömötör & Ferenc Illés & Kata Váradi, 2016. "Stress Indicator for Clearing Houses," Central European Business Review, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(4), pages 47-60.
    11. Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction; A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund.
    12. repec:bla:manchs:v:85:y:2017:i:6:p:765-794 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Berlinger, Edina & Váradi, Kata & Dömötör, Barbara & Illés, Ferenc, 2016. "A tőzsdei elszámolóházak vesztesége
      [The loss from central clearing houses]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 993-1010.
    14. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    15. Irina Bunda & A. Javier Hamann & Subir Lall, 2005. "Comovements In Emerging Market Bond Returns: An Empirical Assessment," Post-Print halshs-00424466, HAL.
    16. Ayadi, Mohamed & Khallouli, Wajih & Sandretto, René, 2006. "Les déterminants des crises financières récentes des pays émergents," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 82(3), pages 341-376, septembre.
    17. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2006. "The CAPM and the risk appetite index; theoretical differences and empirical similarities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 586, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
    19. Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Broner, Fernando A. & Gaston Gelos, R. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2006. "When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 203-230, June.
    22. Armando Méndez Morales & Liliana B Schumacher, 2003. "Market Volatility As a Financial Soundness Indicator; An Application to Israel," IMF Working Papers 03/47, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee & Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda & Martin, Vance, 2006. "Contagion in international bond markets during the Russian and the LTCM crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, April.
    24. S Griffith-Jones (IDS, University of Sussex) and J Leape (LSE), "undated". "Capital Flows to developing countries: does the emperor have clothes?," QEH Working Papers qehwps89, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    25. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.

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