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Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region

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  • Tim Callen
  • Warwick J. McKibbin

Abstract

This paper uses the G-Cubed (Asia-Pacific) model-a macroeconomic model with rich cross-country links-to explore the implications for Japan and Asia of several shocks to the Japanese economy. The results suggest that, while fiscal consolidation in Japan would initially dampen domestic growth, over the medium term the impact on both the domestic and regional economies would be positive. Quantitative monetary easing in Japan would boost domestic activity in the short-run, while being basically neutral for the region. Finally, a loss of confidence in the yen would be negative for Japan, but positive for the region because of a reallocation of capital flows toward non-Japan Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2001. "Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 01/131, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 106-137, Winter.
    2. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 2000. "Technical Progress and the Growth of the Japanese Economy--Past and Future," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 34-45, Summer.
    3. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters,in: The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Akira Kohsaka, 1996. "Interdependence through Capital Flows in Pacific Asia and the Role of Japan," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 107-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Lipworth, Gabrielle, 1998. "Japanese foreign direct investment and regional trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 581-607.
    6. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    7. Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Restoring Japan's Economic Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 35.
    8. Uzawa, H, 1969. "Time Preference and the Penrose Effect in a Two-Class Model of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 628-652, Part II, .
    9. Boltho, Andrea & Corbett, Jenny, 2000. "The Assessment: Japan's Stagnation--Can Policy Revive the Economy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, Summer.
    10. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321-321.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    2. Hsiao, Frank S. T. & Hsiao, Mei-chu W. & Yamashita, Akio, 2003. "The impact of the US economy on the Asia-Pacific region: does it matter?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 219-241, April.
    3. Warwick J. McKibbin & Jeremy Nguyen, 2004. "Modelling Global Demographic Change:Results For Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2004-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.

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