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Long-Term Capital Movements

  • Philip R. Lane
  • Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti

International financial integration allows countries to become net creditors or net debtors with respect to the rest of the world. In this paper, we show that a small set of fundamentals-shifts in relative output levels, the stock of public debt and demographic factors-can do much to explain the evolution of net foreign asset positions. In addition, we highlight the role that "external wealth" plays in determining the behaviour of the trade balance, and we provide some evidence that a portfolio balance effect exists: real interest rate differentials are inversely related to net foreign asset positions.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/107.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/107
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  1. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jocelyn Horne & Paul R. Masson & Jeroen J. M. Kremers, 1993. "Net Foreign Assets and International Adjustment: The United States, Japan, and Germany," IMF Working Papers 93/33, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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  16. Taylor, A.M., 1991. "Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1579, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  17. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  18. Alan M. Taylor, 1994. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 4892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," NBER Working Papers 2280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  22. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  23. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  24. Halevi, Nadav, 1971. "An empirical test of the balance of payments stages hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 103-117, February.
  25. Bayoumi, Tamim & Gagnon, Joseph, 1996. "Taxation and inflation: A new explanation for capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 303-330, October.
  26. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
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