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Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies

Listed author(s):
  • Paolo Mauro

This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information to forecast output also in emerging market economies. Moreover, the paper finds that the strength of the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns is significantly related to a number of stock market characteristics, such as the number of listed domestic companies and initial public offerings and, especially, a high market capitalization to GDP ratio and English legal origin.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/89.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 May 2000
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/89
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  1. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets: How Do Emerging and Mature Markets Differ?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 461-501, September.
  2. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
  3. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
  4. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  5. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. " Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
  6. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  8. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-108, January.
  9. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
  10. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
  11. Schwert, G William, 1990. " Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
  12. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
  13. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  14. Mullins, Mark & Wadhwani, Sushil B., 1989. "The effect of the stock market on investment: a comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 939-956, May.
  15. repec:hrv:faseco:30728041 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Wasserfallen, Walter, 1989. "Macroeconomics news and the stock market: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 613-626, September.
  17. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
  18. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
  19. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
  20. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
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