Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa; Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htmEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leon, Javier & Soto, Raimundo, 1995.
"Structural breaks and long-run trends in commodity prices,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1406, The World Bank.
- Javier Le�N & Raimundo Soto, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000.
"Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
- C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2000.
"Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa; Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?,"
IMF Working Papers
00/72, International Monetary Fund.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Pattillo, Catherine, 2004. "Terms of trade shocks in Africa: are they short-lived or long-lived?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 727-744, April.
- Basu, Parantap & McLeod, Darryl, 1991. "Terms of trade fluctuations and economic growth in developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 89-110, November.
- Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000.
"What Drives Private Saving Across the World?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
- Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 47, Central Bank of Chile.
- Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Papers 47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982.
"Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
- Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996.
"International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
- Deaton, A-S & Miller, R-I, 1995. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance, and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Princeton Studies in International Economics 79, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Deaton, A.S., 1992. "Commodity Prices, Stabilization, and Growth in Africa," Papers 166, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices,"
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000.
"Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 647-66, November.
- Hong Liang & C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1999.
"How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?,"
IMF Working Papers
99/80, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 2.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
- Akiyama, Takamasa & Larson, Donald F. & DEC, 1994. "The adding-up problem : strategies for primary commodity exports in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1245, The World Bank.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.