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Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Listed author(s):
  • Ranil M Salgado
  • Luca A Ricci
  • Francesco Caramazza

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industrial countries. A panel probit estimation finds these economic indicators to be significant for emerging market countries during the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises. In particular, the indicators of vulnerability to international financial spillover (common creditor) and of financial fragility (reserve adequacy) are highly significant and appear to explain the apparent regional concentration of these crises. Exchange rate regimes and capital controls, however, do not seem to matter.

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File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3502
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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/55.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2000
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/55
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  1. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Crises, Contagion, and the Closed-End Country Fund Puzzle," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 3-3.
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  4. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Ilan Goldfajn, 1997. "Are Currency Crises Predictable?," IMF Working Papers 97/159, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises; The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Methodology for an Early Warning System: The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1997. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," NBER Working Papers 6080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1994. "Contagious speculative attacks," BIS Working Papers 22, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
  10. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies; How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  12. Paul Cashin & Manmohan S. Kumar & C. John McDermott, 1995. "International Integration of Equity Markets and Contagion Effects," IMF Working Papers 95/110, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
  16. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  18. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
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