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Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

  • Ranil Salgado
  • Luca Antonio Ricci
  • Francesco Caramazza

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industrial countries. A panel probit estimation finds these economic indicators to be significant for emerging market countries during the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises. In particular, the indicators of vulnerability to international financial spillover (common creditor) and of financial fragility (reserve adequacy) are highly significant and appear to explain the apparent regional concentration of these crises. Exchange rate regimes and capital controls, however, do not seem to matter.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/55.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/55
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  1. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System," MPRA Paper 24580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
  4. Paul Cashin & Manmohan S. Kumar & C. John McDermott, 1995. "International Integration of Equity Markets and Contagion Effects," IMF Working Papers 95/110, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  9. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Ilan Goldfajn, 1997. "Are Currency Crises Predictable?," IMF Working Papers 97/159, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  12. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Angel J. Ubide, 1998. "Crises, Contagion, and the Closed; End Country Fund Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 98/143, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises; The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1997. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," NBER Working Papers 6080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Methodology for an Early Warning System: The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies; How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
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