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Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World; A Panel Var Approach

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  • Alexei P Kireyev

Abstract

The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexei P Kireyev, 2000. "Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World; A Panel Var Approach," IMF Working Papers 00/54, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/54
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    Cited by:

    1. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 81-108, March.
    2. Mirela Sorina Miescu, 2016. "IMF Programs and Sensitivity to External Shocks: An Empirical Application," Working Papers 791, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Djelassi, Mouldi & Essid, Lobna, 2012. "Le niveau des prix en Tunisie est-il déterminé par la politique budgétaire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(2), pages 231-256, Juin.
    4. Ahortor, Christian R.K. & Adenutsi, Deodat E., 2009. "Inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth in import-dependent developing countries," MPRA Paper 29353, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    5. Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi, 2013. "Does Volatility in Crude Oil Price Precipitate Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 143-152.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability; Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/121, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mohammed Nur HUSSAIN & Nam HOANG, 2014. "Effects of Fiscal, Monetary, and Exchange rate policies on Output in 12 Asian Economies, 1974-2007," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).

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