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A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Murray Petrie
  • Richard Hemming

Abstract

Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer-term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy. Fiscal vulnerability indicators are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray Petrie & Richard Hemming, 2000. "A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 00/52, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/52
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    Cited by:

    1. Bachellerie, A. & Couillault, B., 2005. "Public debt sustainability and crises in emerging market countries: a presentation of the concepts and diagnostic tools," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 6, pages 63-80, June.
    2. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Murray Petrie, 2003. "Promoting Fiscal Transparency the Complementary Roles of the Imf, Financial Markets and Civil Society," IMF Working Papers 03/199, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    6. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2016. "The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness: The case of G5 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    7. Philippe Muller & Jérôme Bourque, 2017. "Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns," Discussion Papers 17-7, Bank of Canada.
    8. repec:wbk:wboper:16727 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "Empirical study on the determinants of fiscal vulnerability: evidence for the European Union," MPRA Paper 65063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Richard Hemming & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 218, International Monetary Fund.
    11. World Bank, 2013. "Burundi Public Expenditure Review : Strengthening Fiscal Resilience to Promote Government Effectiveness
      [République du Burundi - Burundi Revue des Dépenses Publiques - Renforcer l’efficacité des po
      ," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21283, The World Bank.
    12. Samer Saab, 2005. "Is Lebanon’s Debt Sustainable? A Closer Look at Lebanon’s Debt Dynamics," Public Economics 0505006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Richard M. Bird, 2003. "Fiscal Flows, Fiscal Balance, and Fiscal Sustainability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0302, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    14. Manasan, Rosario G., 2003. "Analysis of the President's Budget for 2004: Looking for the Complete (Fiscal) Picture," Discussion Papers DP 2003-17, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    15. Ehtisham Ahmad & Li Keping & Raju J Singh & Thomas J Richardson, 2002. "Recentralization in China?," IMF Working Papers 02/168, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 11/100, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jelena Laušev & Aleksandar Stojanović & Nataša Todorović, 2011. "Determinants Of Debt Rescheduling In Eastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(188), pages 7-31, January –.
    18. Kalin Hristov & Martin Zaimov, 2003. "Shadowing the euro: Bulgaria’s monetary policy five years on," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 61-78 Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Ana-Cristina Nicolescu, 2012. "The Recent Dynamics of Public Debt in the European Union: A Matter of Fundamentals or the Result of a Failed Monetary Experiment?," FEP Working Papers 467, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal risk; sustainability; vulnerability; fiscal vulnerability; expenditure; fiscal position; fiscal outcomes;

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