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The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union; A View From the Supply Side

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The output contractions during the initial transition stages in the Baltics and in Russia and the other CIS countries are examined across several dimensions, and the reliability of the available official statistics evaluated. The depth, length and breadth of the contractions are studied and set against a longer-run historical perspective. The relationship between inputs and outputs as described in a standard accounting framework shows that there is more to the contractions than collapsing investment and shrinking employment. Sharp declines in productivity, reflecting in part transition-related factors, also played a major role.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union; A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 00/32, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, pages 90-95.
    2. Michael Kell, 2001. "An Assessment of Fiscal Rules in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 01/91, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis; A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 06/81, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Keiko Honjo & Benjamin L Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 06/262, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryszard Rapacki & Mariusz Próchniak, 2010. "Economic Growth Paths in the CEE Countries and in Selected Emerging Economies, 1993-2007," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(1).
    2. Raiser, Martin & Schaffer, Mark & Schuchhardt, Johannes, 2004. "Benchmarking structural change in transition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 47-81, March.
    3. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Julian Berengaut, 2005. "Who is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition," IMF Working Papers 05/68, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mika Kortelainen & Simo Leppänen, 2013. "Public and private capital productivity in Russia: a non-parametric investigation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 193-216, August.
    5. Thorsten Beck & Luc Laeven, 2006. "Institution building and growth in transition economies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 157-186, June.
    6. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2011. "Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of the Estimation of Production Function using Quarterly Data," RRC Working Paper Series 30, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000. "Output Changes and Inflationary Bias in Transition," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp167, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    8. De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
    9. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 793-836.
    10. Eteri Kvintradze, 2010. "Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery; Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition," IMF Working Papers 10/89, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2012. "New measures of output, labour and capital in industries of the Russian economy," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-123, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    12. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Campos, Nauro F., 2001. "Will the Future Be Better Tomorrow? The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Revisited," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 663-676, December.
    14. Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in Transition Economies; Growth-Accounting Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/164, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, pages 123-123.
    16. Brownbridge, Martin & Canagarajah, Sudharshan, 2008. "Fiscal policy for growth and development in Tajikistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4532, The World Bank.
    17. Oleh Havrylyshyn, 2008. "Growth Recovery in CIS Countries: The Sufficient Minimum Threshold of Reforms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 53-78, March.
    18. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    20. Slavo Radosevic, 2004. "A Two-Tier or Multi-Tier Europe? Assessing the Innovation Capacities of Central and East European Countries in the Enlarged EU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 641-666, September.
    21. World Bank, 2003. "Azerbaijan : Public Expenditure Review," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13825, The World Bank.
    22. Brizga, Janis & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus, 2013. "Drivers of CO2 emissions in the former Soviet Union: A country level IPAT analysis from 1990 to 2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 743-753.
    23. De Broeck, Mark & Sloek, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    24. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei & Drobyshevskiy, Sergei & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Decomposition of the russian GDP growth rate in 1999-2014," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 7-37, October.

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