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What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?

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  • Antonio Spilimbergo
  • Rupa Duttagupta

Abstract

After the large exchange rate depreciations following the 1997 East Asian crisis, export volumes from East Asian countries responded with a notable lag. Two main explanations for this lag have been proposed: that the policy of high interest rates limited access to domestic credit and hence limited the supply of exports; and that “competitive depreciation” neutralized the effects on demand for exports. This paper considers the plausibility of these two mechanisms using a new monthly database on exports of selected industries. We find evidence that “competitive depreciation” did play a fundamental role in the propagation of the East Asian crisis through the trade channel, even at a monthly frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Spilimbergo & Rupa Duttagupta, 2000. "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 00/200, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/200
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    Cited by:

    1. Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2008. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-48.
    2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00118834 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
    4. Carranza, Luis J. & Cayo, Juan M. & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E., 2003. "Exchange rate volatility and economic performance in Peru: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 472-496, December.
    5. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
    6. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2009. "Financial Market Imperfections and the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 103-120, February.
    7. Dionisius Narjoko & Hal Hill, 2007. "Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm-level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 343-368, December.
    8. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 13, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    9. Jörg Mayer & Arunas Butkevicius & Ali Kadri & Juan Pizarro, 2004. "Dynamic products in world exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 762-795, September.
    10. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    11. Takashi Isogai & Hirofumi Morishita & Rasmus Ruffer, 2002. "Analysis of Intra- and Inter-regional Trade in East Asia:Comparative Advantage Structures and Dynamic Interdependency in Trade Flows," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series International Department,, Bank of Japan.
    12. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Makarand Parulkar, 2008. "Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a Financially Vulnerable Emerging Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 21-33, May.
    13. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.
    14. Eichengreen, Barry & Jung, Naeun & Moch, Stephen & Mody, Ashoka, 2014. "The Eurozone Crisis: Phoenix Miracle or Lost Decade?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 288-308.
    15. n.a.m, Naseem & abu hassan shaari mohd, Nor & tamat, Sarmidi & noor aini, khalifah, 2013. "Exports and Exchange Rate Movements: The Role of Credit Market Imperfections," MPRA Paper 52395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Makarand Parulkar, 2006. "Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a in a financially vulnerable Emerging Economy," Working Papers id:354, eSocialSciences.
    17. Dionisius A. Narjoko & Raymond Atje, 2007. "The Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda with Special Reference to the Asia Pacific Region: A Brief Survey," Working Papers 3207, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    18. Rungrudee Suetorsak, 2006. "Banking crisis in east asia: A micro/macro perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 219-248, May.
    19. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J. & Levine, David I., 2008. "Financial constraints on investment in an emerging market crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 568-591, April.
    20. Anita Giselle Doraisami, 2007. "Financial crisis in Malaysia: did FDI flows contribute to vulnerability?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 949-962.
    21. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/200, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Makarand Parulkar, 2008. "Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a Financially Vulnerable Emerging Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 21-33, May.
    23. Anita Daraisami, 2004. "Export growth slowdown and currency crisis: the Malaysian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(17), pages 1947-1957.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia; Export competitiveness; Exports; Cointegration; Competitive Depreciation; Export Demand and Supply; East Asia; export prices; equations; equation; asian exports;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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