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Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles; Evidence From Hong Kong SAR


  • Christoph Duenwald


This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Duenwald, 2000. "Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles; Evidence From Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 00/2, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/2

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 149-150, August.
    2. George Kopits & J. D. Craig, 1998. "Transparency in Government Operations," IMF Occasional Papers 158, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Murray Petrie & Richard Hemming, 2000. "A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 00/52, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology; An Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 02/170, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    2. Clemente De Lucia, 2007. "Did the FED Inflate a Housing Price Bubble? A Cointegration Analysis between the 1980s and the 1990s," ISAE Working Papers 82, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    3. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Lisbeth S Zacho & Qin Lei, 2001. "Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness," IMF Working Papers 01/129, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    6. Abdelhak S Senhadji & Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/20, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    8. Philip Schellekens, 2003. "Deflation in Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 03/77, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2010. "Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Hong Kong: 1985-2006," DFAEII Working Papers 2010-14, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    10. Wei Li, 2008. "Property tax and speculative bubble: An empirical analysis of Tianjin," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(4), pages 627-643, December.


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