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Discriminating Contagion; An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

  • Pavan Ahluwalia
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    This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment if it exhibits weaknesses in the same economic variables as other countries affected by a contagious crisis (particularly the country that started the contagious wave), or if it is located in the same region. The paper uses a sample of 19 emerging markets, and data from the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises to provide evidence of this discriminating contagion, after controlling for alternative channels of contagion such as trade spillovers and financial linkages.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3417
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/14.

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    Length: 38
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/14
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    1. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
    3. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    4. Steven Riess Weisbrod & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1995. "Financial Fragilities in Latin America; The 1980s and 1990s," IMF Occasional Papers 132, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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