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Discriminating Contagion; An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets


  • Pavan Ahluwalia


This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment if it exhibits weaknesses in the same economic variables as other countries affected by a contagious crisis (particularly the country that started the contagious wave), or if it is located in the same region. The paper uses a sample of 19 emerging markets, and data from the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises to provide evidence of this discriminating contagion, after controlling for alternative channels of contagion such as trade spillovers and financial linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavan Ahluwalia, 2000. "Discriminating Contagion; An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 00/14, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/14

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    5. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    6. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Steven Riess Weisbrod & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1995. "Financial Fragilities in Latin America; The 1980s and 1990s," IMF Occasional Papers 132, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "Fatal attraction: Using distance to measure contagion in good times as well as bad," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 259-273.
    3. Helmut Wagner & Wolfram Berger, 2003. "Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 95, Netherlands Central Bank.
    4. Younes Boujelbène & Majdi Ksantini, 2009. "La transmission entre les marchés boursiers :Une analyse en composante principale," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 161-194.
    5. Moheeput, Ashwin, 2008. "Financial Fragility, Systemic Risks and Informational Spillovers : Modelling Banking Contagion as State-Contingent Change in Cross-Bank Correlation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 853, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. Khalid, Ahmed M. & Kawai, Masahiro, 2003. "Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia?: Evidence using a multivariate VAR model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 131-156, February.
    7. Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
    8. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2009. "Capital requirement and financial crisis: The case of Japan and the 1997 Asian crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 97-104, January.
    9. Matteo Cominetta, 2016. "Financial Contagion: A New Perspective (and a New Test)," Working Papers 12, European Stability Mechanism.
    10. Manz, Michael, 2010. "Information-based contagion and the implications for financial fragility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 900-910, October.
    11. Morris Goldstein, 2001. "IMF Structural Conditionality: How Much is Too Much?," Working Paper Series WP01-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    13. George Hondroyiannis & Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas, 2009. "Spatial Aspects of Contagion among Emerging Economies," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 191-211.


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