Exchange Rate Regime Transitions
The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to intermediate regimes—are tested using two alternative classifications of regimes. While there is some support for the lack of exits from hard pegs (i.e., that they are an absorbing state), the data generally indicate that the intermediate cases will continue to constitute a sizable proportion of actual exchange rate regimes.
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- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997.
"Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?,"
97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995.
"The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997.
"Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
- Robert P. Flood & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Jocelyn P. Horne, 1989. "Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(4), pages 810-835, December.
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