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Demographic Change in Asia; The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Ian S McDonald
  • Serge Bésanger
  • Ross Guest

Abstract

This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of results to changing demographic structures on employment participation, labor productivity; and consumption demands. In particular, the simulations reveal that variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian S McDonald & Serge Bésanger & Ross Guest, 2000. "Demographic Change in Asia; The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 00/115, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/115
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    Cited by:

    1. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Young Jun Chun, 2007. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 339-372 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jong-Won Yoon & Jinill Kim & Jungjin Lee, 2014. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," IMF Working Papers 14/210, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Comment on "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy"," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 372-373 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Young Jun Chun, 2006. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy," NBER Working Papers 12265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; Asia; Investment; Savings; Current Account Balance; Investments; Aging; Demography; national saving; consumption demands; demographic projections; age group; older people;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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