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Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?

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  • Torsten M Sloek
  • Peter F. Christoffersen

Abstract

There is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the period 1994-1999 it is shown that historical values for interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices signal future movements in real economic activity. This result has significant implications for policymakers, and a composite leading indicator based on the three asset prices is presented, which contains information about the future development of economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Torsten M Sloek & Peter F. Christoffersen, 2000. "Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?," IMF Working Papers 00/103, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/103
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    2. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    3. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan, 2005. "The impact of news, oil prices, and global market developments on Russian financial markets," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 373-393, April.
    5. Bernd Hayo & Ali Kutan, 2002. "The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and International Spillovers on Russian Financial Markets," Finance 0209001, EconWPA.
    6. Gongpil Choi, 2003. "The Choice of Monetary Regime for Post-Crisis Asia. The Case of South Korea," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1137-1160.
    7. Norbert Funke, 2002. "Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/238, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    9. Junttila, Juha & Kinnunen, Heli, 2004. "The performance of economic tracking portfolios in an IT-intensive stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 601-623, September.
    10. Junttila, Juha, 2007. "Forecasting the macroeconomy with contemporaneous financial market information: Europe and the United States," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-175.

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