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Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU


  • Paul R Masson


The more advanced Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) face an evolving set of considerations in choosing their exchange rate policies. On the one hand, capital mobility is increasing, and this imposes additional constraints on fixed exchange rate regimes, while trend real appreciation makes the combination of low inflation and exchange rate stability problematic. On the other hand, the objectives of EU and eventual EMU membership make attractive a peg to the euro at some stage in the transition. The paper discusses these conflicting considerations, and considers the feasibility of an alternative monetary framework, inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul R Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/5, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfpdp:99/5

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Willem Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 287-318.
    2. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2000. "Options for the exchange rate policies in the EU accession countries (and other emerging market economies)," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 13, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    3. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    5. Iikka Korhonen & Mare Randveer, 2015. "Assessment of the Euros's implications for European economic development," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2000-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 03 Feb 2015.
    6. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2000. "A dynamic approach to inflation targeting in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 11-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    7. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    8. George Syrichas, 2008. "Monetary Policy Strategy and the Euro: Lessons from Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 2(2), pages 81-102, December.
    9. Jadresic, Esteban & Masson, Paul & Mauro, Paolo, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes of Developing Countries: Global Context and Individual Choices," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 68-101, March.
    10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
    11. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
    12. Domac, Ilker & Peters, Kyle & Yuzefovich, Yevgeny, 2001. "Does the exchange rate regime affect macroeconomic performance : evidence from transition economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2642, The World Bank.
    13. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    14. Andrea Brasili & Bruno Sitzia, 2003. "Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 135-155, April.
    15. Vladimir Klyuev, 2001. "A Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in the Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/140, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2005. "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-74, March.
    17. Fabio M. Natalucci & Federico Ravenna, 2002. "The road to adopting the euro: monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in EU candidate countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 741, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Velimir Šonje & Igeta Vrbanc, 2000. "Measuring the Similarities of Economic Developments in Central Europe: A Correlation between the Business Cycles of Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia," Working Papers 3, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    19. Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Georgi Chukalev, 2002. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the Bulgarian Economy," Working paper series 22002en, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
    21. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
    22. Willem Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Banque centrale et choix de régimes de change pour les pays candidats à l’adhésion," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 315-347.
    23. Frensch, Richard, 2001. "Some perspectives on currency relations between EMU and Central and East European EU accession countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 175-181, September.
    24. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2000. "The Euro as a Monetary Anchor in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 303-321, October.
    25. Fabrizio Iacone & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting in the CEE Accession Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp08, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.


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