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Deflation; Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options

Author

Listed:
  • Taimur Baig
  • Jörg Decressin
  • Tarhan Feyzioglu
  • Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh

Abstract

Deflation can be costly and difficult to anticipate, and concerns of a generalized decline in prices in both industrial and emerging market economies have increased recently. This paper investigates the causes and consequences of deflation, the risk of deflation globally and in individual countries, and policy options. The authors discuss issues related to the measurement, determinants, and costs of deflation and examine previous episodes of deflation. They compute an index of deflation vulnerability, which they apply to the 35 largest industrial and emerging market economies. Finally, the paper offers several policy options for protecting against deflation and for coping with it should it strike.

Suggested Citation

  • Taimur Baig & Jörg Decressin & Tarhan Feyzioglu & Manmohan S. Kumar & Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, 2003. "Deflation; Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 221, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfocp:221
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    Cited by:

    1. Colavecchio, Roberta & Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2014. "A money-based indicator for deflation risk," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100595, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Luke B Willard & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2006. "Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?," IMF Working Papers 06/36, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, September.
    4. Hans Genberg, 2005. "External Shocks, Transmission Mechanisms and Deflation in Asia," Working Papers 062005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
    6. Romain Veyrune, 2005. "Le prix de la fixité : Application à l'Union monétaire des Caraïbes orientales et à la Zone franc," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 130(2), pages 63-76.
    7. Taimur Baig, 2003. "Understanding the Costs of Deflation in the Japanese Context," IMF Working Papers 03/215, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Heinz Handler, 2003. "From Hard Currency Policy to Monetary Union," WIFO Working Papers 210, WIFO.
    9. Tao Wang, 2004. "China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 04/18, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Peng, Xuehua & Marchant, Mary A. & Reed, Michael R., 2004. "Identifying Monetary Impacts On Food Prices In China: A Vec Model Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20315, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    12. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Jonathan David Ostry, 2005. "Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/5, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    14. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2016. "Nonlinear models for the sources of real effective exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from the Republic of Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-30.

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