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The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

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  • Catherine A Pattillo
  • Andrew Berg

Abstract

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine A Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2000. "The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises," IMF Economic Issues 22, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfeci:22
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Sarcinelli, 2004. "The new financial architecture: from substantive to procedural rules," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(231), pages 337-363.
    2. Ayadi, Mohamed & Khallouli, Wajih & Sandretto, René, 2006. "Les déterminants des crises financières récentes des pays émergents," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 82(3), pages 341-376, septembre.
    3. Jianping Shi & Yu Gao, 2010. "A Study on KLR Financial Crisis Early-Warning Model," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 254-275, June.
    4. Schmidt Paul-Günther, 2001. "Ursachen systemischer Bankenkrisen: Erklärungsversuche, empirische Evidenz und wirtschaftspolitische Konsequenzen," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 52(1), pages 239-280, January.
    5. Emil Panusheff, 2005. "The Regional Character of Financial Crises," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 49-69.
    6. Mario Sarcinelli, 2004. "The new financial architecture: from substantive to procedural rules," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(231), pages 337-363.
    7. Gao, Jianbo & Hu, Jing, 2014. "Financial crisis, Omori's law, and negative entropy flow," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 79-86.
    8. Pederson, Glenn D. & Khitarishvili, Tamar, 2001. "Trade And Macroeconomic Policy: What Does It Mean For Farmers And Lenders?," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2001 33081, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.

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