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Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?

  • Pau Castells

    ()

    (Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB))

  • Francesc Trillas

    ()

    (Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB); Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB))

In the last days of the electoral campaign for the 2004 general election in Spain, on Thursday March 11th 2004, a series of simultaneous terror attacks caused the death of 191 persons in commuting trains in the capital Madrid. Four days later, the opposition party won the election, against all predictions that were made prior to the terror attacks. This change in expectations presents a unique opportunity to take advantage of event study techniques to test some politico-economic hypotheses. The quantitative exercise is carried out employing Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR). Hypothesis testing is improved by means of bootstrapping techniques. Convergence theories prove quite resilient as, jointly, quoted firms were not significantly affected by the election outcome. The results on the impact on particular companies and industries, however, suggest that a combination of capture and agency problems may play a role in explaining the effects of the change in expectations.

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File URL: http://ieb.ub.edu/aplicacio/fitxers/2009/3/Doc2008-1.pdf
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Paper provided by Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) in its series Working Papers with number 2008/1.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2009/3/doc2008-1
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  1. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
  2. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
  3. Roland Füss & Michael Bechtel, 2008. "Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 131-150, June.
  4. Germa Bel & Francesc Trillas, 2004. "Privatization, Corporate Control and Regulatory Reform: The case of Telefonica," Finance 0409053, EconWPA.
  5. Trillas, Francesco, 2002. "The Structure of Corporate ownership in Privatized Utilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3563, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Pauline M. Shum, 1995. "The 1992 Canadian Constitutional Referendum Using Financial Data to Assess Economic Consequences," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4a), pages 794-807, November.
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