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Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?

Author

Listed:
  • Pau Castells

    () (Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB))

  • Francesc Trillas

    () (Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB); Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB))

Abstract

In the last days of the electoral campaign for the 2004 general election in Spain, on Thursday March 11th 2004, a series of simultaneous terror attacks caused the death of 191 persons in commuting trains in the capital Madrid. Four days later, the opposition party won the election, against all predictions that were made prior to the terror attacks. This change in expectations presents a unique opportunity to take advantage of event study techniques to test some politico-economic hypotheses. The quantitative exercise is carried out employing Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR). Hypothesis testing is improved by means of bootstrapping techniques. Convergence theories prove quite resilient as, jointly, quoted firms were not significantly affected by the election outcome. The results on the impact on particular companies and industries, however, suggest that a combination of capture and agency problems may play a role in explaining the effects of the change in expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2008. "Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?," Working Papers 2008/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  • Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2009/3/doc2008-1
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    File URL: http://ieb.ub.edu/aplicacio/fitxers/2009/3/Doc2008-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    2. Bel, Germà & Trillas, Francesc, 2005. "Privatization, corporate control and regulatory reform: the case of Telefonica," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 25-51, February.
    3. repec:cup:apsrev:v:71:y:1977:i:04:p:1467-1487_26 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Francesc Trillas, 2004. "The structure of corporate ownership in privatized utilities," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 257-284, May.
    5. Roland Füss & Michael Bechtel, 2008. "Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 131-150, June.
    6. Pauline M. Shum, 1995. "The 1992 Canadian Constitutional Referendum Using Financial Data to Assess Economic Consequences," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4a), pages 794-807, November.
    7. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; median voter; agency; capture; elections.;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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