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La estructura de la deuda pública en México: Lecciones y perspectivas

  • Fausto Hernández Trillo
  • Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua

Este artículo examina algunas de las hipótesis sobre las estrategias de deuda que a priori parece haber seguido el gobierno mexicano, partiendo de un examen de la evolución y composición de la misma. Un aspecto interesante de este examen es que el nivel de la deuda total con respecto al PIB en México era relativamente bajo (27 por ciento), sobre todo comparado con algunos países de la Unión Europea como Italia y Bélgica. Esto sugiere que la composición de la deuda y su perfil de vencimientos se convierten en un aspecto importante, particularmente en México. De este examen uno de los acertijos que saltan a la escena es si la excesiva indización de la deuda interna al dólar durante 1994 fue una medida adecuada.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank in its series IDB Publications (Working Papers) with number 7612.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:7612
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  1. Sachs, J. & Tornell, A. & Velasco, A., 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," Working Papers 96-20, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  8. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
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  11. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 95-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
  13. Kletzer, Kenneth M, 1984. "Asymmetries of Information and LDC Borrowing with Sovereign Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 287-307, June.
  14. Goldfajn, Ilan, 2000. "Public Debt Indexation and Denomination: The Case of Brazil," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 43-56, February.
  15. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," Working Papers 73, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  16. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
  17. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February.
  18. Antonio Ávalos Huerta & Fausto Hernández Trillo, 1995. "Comportamiento del tipo de cambio real y desempeño económico en México," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 239-263, July-Dece.
  19. Missale, Alessandro, 1997. " Managing the Public Debt: The Optimal Taxation Approach," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 235-65, September.
  20. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December.
  21. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
  23. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  24. Michael P. Dooley, 1994. "A Retrospective on the Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 4963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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