On Emerging Economy Sovereign Spreads and Ratings
This paper analyzes alternative models for emerging sovereign ratings. Although a small number of economic fundamentals explain ratings reasonably well, variations in those economic fundamentals are themselves explained by a small number of world factors. On the other hand, global financial variables associated with risk aversion are additionally required in order to explain the significant spread compression at the end of 2006. To determine whether ratings matter for spreads, the paper compares results across different methodologies, in particular exploiting differences in opinion between rating agencies. The evidence from this and previous methodologies is that ratings do matter. Finally, the paper finds that global indicators of risk aversion have become less important for emerging market spreads and that the effect of sub-prime news is less than the effect of average news on emerging economy credit default swap (CDS) spreads.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1300 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20577|
Web page: http://www.iadb.org/publications/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000.
"Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
- Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
- Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, .
- Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006.
"Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts,"
Research Department Publications
4480, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 371, Central Bank of Chile.
- Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Sovereign Debt In The Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts," Business School Working Papers 2006-09, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004.
"On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects,"
NBER Working Papers
10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6516, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," Research Department Publications 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006.
"What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2006/35, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996.
"Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004.
"A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data,"
Textos para discussão
484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anastasia Guscina & Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries; A New Data Set," IMF Working Papers 06/98, .
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:6735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Bazan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.