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The (De-)Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from the Euro Area

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  • Laura Pagenhardt
  • Dieter Nautz
  • Till Strohsal
  • Strohsal

Abstract

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011. Since then, however, they respond significantly to macroeconomic news. Our results obtained from multiple endogenous break point tests suggest that euro area inflation expectations have remained de-anchored ever since.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Pagenhardt & Dieter Nautz & Till Strohsal & Strohsal, 2015. "The (De-)Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-044, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bkr:journl:v:77:y:2018:i:3:p:23-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 39-43.
    4. repec:eee:jmacro:v:61:y:2019:i:c:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tischer, Johannes, 2018. "Quantitative easing, portfolio rebalancing and credit growth: Micro evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. repec:eee:jmacro:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:39-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the 'new normal'," DEM Working Papers 2018/04, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2018. "The Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures of the ECB: Motivations, Effectiveness and Risks," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 51(4), pages 513-560.
    9. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Computing Long-Term Market Inflation Expectations for Countries without Inflation Expectation Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(3), pages 23-48, September.
    11. repec:eee:ecmode:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:202-213 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchoring of Inflation Expectations; Break-Even Inflation Rates; News-Regressions; Multiple Structural Break Tests;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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