Pricing Rainfall Derivatives at the CME
Many business people such as farmers and financial investors are affected by indirect losses caused by scarce or abundant rainfall. Because of the high potential of insuring rainfall risk, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began trading rainfall derivatives in 2011. Compared to temperature derivatives, however, pricing rainfall derivatives is more difficult. In this article, we propose to model rainfall indices via a flexible type of distribution, namely the normal-inverse Gaussian distribution, which captures asymmetries and heavy-tail behaviour. The prices of rainfall futures are computed by employing the Esscher transform, a wellknown tool in actuarial science. This approach is flexible enough to price any rainfall contract and to adjust theoretical prices to market prices by using the calibrated market price of risk. This empirical analysis is conducted with U.S. precipitation data and CME futures data providing first results on the market price of risk for rainfall derivatives.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kremer, Erhard, 1982. "A Characterization of the Esscher-Transformation," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 57-59, June.
- Wolfgang HÃ¤rdle & Maria Osipenko, 2011. "Pricing Chinese rain: a multi-site multi-period equilibrium pricing model for rainfall derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-055, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Matthias Ritter & Oliver Mußhoff & Martin Odening, 2010. "Meteorological forecasts and the pricing of weather derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-043, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Gunther Leobacher & Philip Ngare, 2011. "On Modelling and Pricing Rainfall Derivatives with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 71-91.
- Wolfgang Karl HÃ¤rdle & Brenda LÃ³pez-Cabrera & Matthias Ritter, 2012. "Forecast based Pricing of Weather Derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Martin Odening & Oliver Musshoff & Wei Xu, 2007. "Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 135-156, May.
- René Carmona & Pavel Diko, 2005. "Pricing Precipitation Based Derivatives," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 959-988.
- Wolfgang Karl HÃ¤rdle & Brenda LÃ³pez-Cabrera & Huei-Wen Teng, 2013.
"State Price Densities implied from weather derivatives,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2013-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Karl Härdle, Wolfgang & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Teng, Huei-Wen, 2015. "State price densities implied from weather derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 106-125.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Gerber, Hans U. & Shiu, Elias S. W., 1996. "Actuarial bridges to dynamic hedging and option pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 183-218, November.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Ritter, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2012.
"Minimizing geographical basis risk of weather derivatives using a multi-site rainfall model,"
123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland
122527, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- M. Ritter & O. Mußhoff & M. Odening, 2014. "Minimizing Geographical Basis Risk of Weather Derivatives Using A Multi-Site Rainfall Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 67-86, June.
- D. Vyncke & M. J. Goovaerts & A. De Schepper & R. Kaas & J. Dhaene, 2003. "On the Distribution of Cash Flows Using Esscher Transforms," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 563-575.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- Marco Frittelli, 2000. "The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure and the Valuation Problem in Incomplete Markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 39-52.
- Heston, Steven L, 1993. " Invisible Parameters in Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 933-47, July.
- Wolfgang Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2009. "Implied Market Price of Weather Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Badescu, Alex & Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen, 2009. "Esscher transforms and consumption-based models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 337-347, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.