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Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics

  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle,Piotr Majer
  • Melanie Schienle

Using a Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model (DSFM) we investigate the term structure of interest rates. The proposed methodology is applied to monthly interest rates for four southern European countries: Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain from the introduction of the Euro to the recent European sovereign-debt crisis. Analyzing this extraordinary period, we compare our approach with the standard market method - dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Our findings show that two nonparametric factors capture the spatial structure of the yield curve for each of the bond markets separately. We attributed both factors to the slope of the yield curve. For panel term structure data, three nonparametric factors are necessary to explain 95% variation. The estimated factor loadings are unit root processes and reveal high persistency. In comparison with the benchmark model, the DSFM technique shows superior short term forecasting.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2012-048.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-048
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  1. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Andrija Mihoci, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Liquidity Supply Using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-044, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Borak, Szymon & Weron, Rafal, 2008. "A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics," MPRA Paper 10421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  6. Matthias Fengler & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen, 2005. "A Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model for Implied Volatility String Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Tatyana Krivobokova & Göran Kauermann & Theofanis Archontakis, 2006. "Estimating the term structure of interest rates using penalized splines," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 443-459, June.
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  10. Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
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  13. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Trück, 2010. "The dynamics of hourly electricity prices," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  14. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
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