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Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics

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  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle,Piotr Majer
  • Melanie Schienle

Abstract

Using a Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model (DSFM) we investigate the term structure of interest rates. The proposed methodology is applied to monthly interest rates for four southern European countries: Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain from the introduction of the Euro to the recent European sovereign-debt crisis. Analyzing this extraordinary period, we compare our approach with the standard market method - dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Our findings show that two nonparametric factors capture the spatial structure of the yield curve for each of the bond markets separately. We attributed both factors to the slope of the yield curve. For panel term structure data, three nonparametric factors are necessary to explain 95% variation. The estimated factor loadings are unit root processes and reveal high persistency. In comparison with the benchmark model, the DSFM technique shows superior short term forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle,Piotr Majer & Melanie Schienle, 2012. "Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-048, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Trebesch, Christoph & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2018. "ECB interventions in distressed sovereign debt markets: The case of Greek bonds," Kiel Working Papers 2101, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, "undated". "Inflation Co-movement across Countries in Multi-maturity Term Structure: An Arbitrage-Free Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Likai Chen & Weining Wang & Wei Biao Wu, 2017. "Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model with a Common Break," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Trebesch, Christoph & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2015. "ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112809, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Schumacher, Julian & Chamon, Marcos & Trebesch, Christoph, 2015. "Foreign Law Bonds: Can They Reduce Sovereign Borrowing Costs?," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113199, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Petra Burdejová & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2017. "Dynamic semi-parametric factor model for functional expectiles," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Ying Chen & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Qiang He & Piotr Majer, 2015. "Risk Related Brain Regions Detected with 3D Image FPCA," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. repec:pal:imfecr:v:66:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1057_s41308-018-0051-y is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    yield curve; term structure of interests rates; semiparametric model; factor structure; prediction;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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