IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On economic evaluation of directional forecasts

  • Oliver Blaskowitz
  • Helmut Herwartz

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision mak- ing process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up{ or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success measures) are properly formu- lated to account for realized signs and realized magnitudes of directional movements. We discuss a general approach to evaluate (directional) forecasts which is simple to implement, robust to outlying or unreasonable forecasts and which provides an economically interpretable loss/success functional framework. As such, the measure of directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2009-052.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2009-052.

as
in new window

Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-052
Contact details of provider: Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin
Phone: +49-30-2093-5708
Fax: +49-30-2093-5617
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.deEmail:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Pca-Based Ex-Ante Forecasting Of Swap Term Structures," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 465-489.
  2. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss," Working Papers 97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Elliott, Graham & Lieli, Robert P., 2013. "Predicting binary outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 15-26.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  6. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
  7. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gerko, Alexander, 2005. "A Trading Approach to Testing for Predictability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 455-461, October.
  8. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwatz, 2008. "Adaptive Forecasting of the EURIBOR Swap Term Structure," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October.
  10. Gencay, Ramazan, 1998. "Optimization of technical trading strategies and the profitability in security markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-254, May.
  11. Rob J. Hyndman & Anne B. Koehler, 2005. "Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  12. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1992. "A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Makridakis, Spyros, 1993. "Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 527-529, December.
  14. Spyros Skouras, 1998. "Financial Returns and Efficiency as seen by an Artificial Technical Analyst," Finance 9808001, EconWPA, revised 24 Aug 1998.
  15. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
  16. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
  17. Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper 72, National Institute of Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.