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Matching Theory and Data: Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

  • Alexander Kriwoluzky

This paper shows how to identify the structural shocks of a Vector Autore- gression (VAR) while at the same time estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is not assumed to replicate the data generating process. It proposes a framework to estimate the parameters of the VAR model and the DSGE model jointly: the VAR model is identified by sign restrictions derived from the DSGE model; the DSGE model is estimated by matching the corresponding impulse response functions.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2008-060.pdf
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2008-060.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-060
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  3. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
  4. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  5. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks viaChanges in Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 1744, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín & Uuskula, Lenno, 2010. "Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-258, June.
  7. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  9. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2008. "The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/05, European University Institute.
  10. Harald Uhlig, 1997. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 59-74, January.
  11. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  13. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  14. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 247-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  16. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  18. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
  19. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Nonnormal Residuals," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/25, European University Institute.
  20. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  22. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2009. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Markov Switching," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/06, European University Institute.
  23. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  25. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  26. Andreas Beyer & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2006. "Identification Problems in SDGE Models with an illustration to a small Macro model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 81, Society for Computational Economics.
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