Estimation of Default Probabilities with Support Vector Machines
Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to estimate default probabilities of German firms. Our analysis is based on the Creditreform database. The results reveal that the most important eight predictors related to bankruptcy for these German firms belong to the ratios of activity, profitability, liquidity, leverage and the percentage of incremental inventories. Based on the performance measures, the SVM tool can predict a firms default risk and identify the insolvent firm more accurately than the benchmark logit model. The sensitivity investigation and a corresponding visualization tool reveal that the classifying ability of SVM appears to be superior over a wide range of the SVM parameters. Based on the nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson estimator, the expected returns predicted by the SVM for regression have a significant positive linear relationship with the risk scores obtained for classification. This evidence is stronger than empirical results for the CAPM based on a linear regression and confirms that higher risks need to be compensated by higher potential returns.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
- Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
- Guenter Franke & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999.
"When are Options Overpriced? The Black-Scholes Model and Alternative Characterisations of the Pricing Kernel,"
CoFE Discussion Paper
99-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Guntar Franke & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black-Scholes Model and Alternative Characterizations of the Pricing Kernel," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-003, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
- Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2006.
"The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions,"
in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 17-73
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2004. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 10631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " The CAPM Is Wanted, Dead or Alive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1947-58, December.
- Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton, 1992. "An Incomplete Contracts Approach to Financial Contracting," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 473-494.
- Lo, Andrew W., 1986. "Logit versus discriminant analysis : A specification test and application to corporate bankruptcies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 151-178, March.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.