Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Does a state’s use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? Nearly all existing theories and empirical studies conclude that such actions only fuel insurgencies by provoking insurgent mobilization. This proposition is tested using a natural experiment that draws on random artillery strikes by Russian forces in Chechnya (2000-05) to estimate the impact of indiscriminate violence on subsequent insurgent violence. A difference-in-difference (DD) estimation method is adopted in which shelled villages are matched with similar non-repressed settlements over identical time periods to estimate treatment effects. The findings are counterintuitive. Shelled villages and their home districts (raiony) exhibit less post-treatment violence than control groups. In addition, commonly-cited “triggers” for insurgent retaliation, including the lethality and duration of indiscriminate violence, are either insignificant or negatively correlated with insurgent attack propensity.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Azam, Jean-Paul, 2004.
"On Thugs and Heroes: Why Warlords Victimize Their Own Civilians?,"
IDEI Working Papers
297, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Jean-Paul Azam, 2006. "On thugs and heroes: Why warlords victimize their own civilians," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 53-73, 01.
- Duflo, Esther & Glennerster, Rachel & Kremer, Michael, 2008.
"Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit,"
Handbook of Development Economics,
- Duflo, Esther & Glennerster, Rachel & Kremer, Michael, 2007. "Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit," CEPR Discussion Papers 6059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Michael Kremer, 2006. "Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit," NBER Technical Working Papers 0333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004.
"Greed and Grievance in Civil War,"
Development and Comp Systems
- Manski, C.F., 1992. "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences," Working papers 9217, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Scott Gates, 2002. "Recruitment and Allegiance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 111-130, February.
- Ben B. Hansen, 2004. "Full Matching in an Observational Study of Coaching for the SAT," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 609-618, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alia Aghajanian)or () or () or ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.