Ending over-lending: Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow
This paper operationalizes early theoretical contributions of Hyman Minsky and applies these in the context of economic sectors and nations. Following the view of boom-bust asset cycles, depicted by the endogenous build-up of risks and their abrupt unraveling, Minsky highlighted the relationship between debt obligations and cash flows. While leverage is oftentimes linked to the vulnerability of a nation, and hence systemic risk, one less explored measure of leverage is the debt-to-cash flow ratio (Debt/CF). Cash flows certainly have a well-known, academically verified connection to the ability of corporations to service and repay corporate debt. This paper investigates whether the relationship between the flow of a nation's savings to its stock of total debt provides a means for understanding systemic risks. For a panel of 33 nations, we explore historic Debt/CF trends, as well as apply the same procedure to individual economic sectors. This assessment of systemic risk is arranged for presentation within a four-zone framework. In terms of an early-warning indicator, we show that the Debt/CF ratio effectively stratifies systemic risks, and offers a useful platform toward macro-financial sustainability.
|Date of creation:||03 Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric Tymoigne, 2012.
"Measuring Macroprudential Risk through Financial Fragility: A Minskyan Approach,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
wp_716, Levy Economics Institute.
- Eric Tymoigne, 2014. "Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 36(4), pages 719-744, July.
- Ilia D. Dichev, 2002. "Large-Sample Evidence on the Debt Covenant Hypothesis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 1091-1123, 09.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002.
"Towards a new early warning system of financial crises,"
Working Paper Series
0145, European Central Bank.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
- King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April.
- Sarlin, Peter, 2013.
"On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems,"
Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
- Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems," Working Paper Series 1509, European Central Bank.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014.
"Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1485, European Central Bank.
- Jan Babecký & Tomáš Havránek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnák & Katerina Šmídková & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises: Early Warning Indicators for Developed Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013.
"Mapping the state of financial stability,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
- Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2011. "Mapping the State of Financial Stability," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2011. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Working Paper Series 1382, European Central Bank.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 51-56, May.
- Lance Taylor, 2008. "A foxy hedgehog: Wynne Godley and macroeconomic modelling," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 639-663, July.
- Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014.
"Predicting distress in European banks,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
- Amir Sufi, 2009. "Bank Lines of Credit in Corporate Finance: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1057-1088, March.
- Éric Tymoigne, 2011. "Measuring Macroprudential Risk: Financial Fragility Indexes," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_654, Levy Economics Institute.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2014_011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.