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Do private signals of a bank’s creditworthiness predict the bank’s CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem's overnight loan rates

  • Tölö , Eero


    (Bank of Finland Research)

  • Jokivuolle, Esa


    (Bank of Finland Research)

  • Viren, Matti


    (Bank of Finland Research)

Registered author(s):

    We investigate the relationship between the daily average interbank overnight borrowing rate (AOR) and the credit default swap price (CDS) of 60 banks using the Eurosystem’s proprietary data from mid-2008 to mid-2013. We find that the AOR which is observable only by the competent Eurosystem authorities leads the CDS at least by one day. The lead was concentrated on days of market stress for banks which mainly borrow from “relationship” lender banks. Such borrower banks are typically smaller, have weak ratings, and likely reside in crisis countries.

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    Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 9/2014.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 26 Feb 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2014_009
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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    1. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    2. Biais, Bruno, 1993. " Price Information and Equilibrium Liquidity in Fragmented and Centralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 157-85, March.
    3. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    4. Marsh, Ian W. & Wagner , Wolf, 2012. "Why is price discovery in credit default swap markets news-specific?," Research Discussion Papers 6/2012, Bank of Finland.
    5. Juan Ignacio Pena & Santiago Forte, 2006. "CREDIT SPREADS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE ABOUT THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF STOCKS, BONDS AND CDSs," Business Economics Working Papers wb063310, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    6. Bräuning, Falk & Fecht, Falko, 2012. "Relationship lending in the interbank market and the price of liquidity," Discussion Papers 22/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    7. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2010. "Stressed, not frozen: the Federal Funds market in the financial crisis," Staff Reports 437, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Luca Arciero & Ronald Heijmans & Richard Heuver & Marco Massarenti & Cristina Picillo & Francesco Vacirca, 2013. "How to measure the unsecured money market? The Eurosystem's implementation and validation using TARGET2 data," DNB Working Papers 369, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Jan Annaert & Marc De Ceuster & Patrick Van Roy & Cristina Vespro, 2010. "What determines euro area bank CDS spreads ?," Working Paper Research 190, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
    12. Berg, Tobias, 2010. "The term structure of risk premia: new evidence from the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1165, European Central Bank.
    13. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    14. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
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