IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?

  • Benhabib , Jess

    (New York University)

  • Evans, George W.

    (University of Oregon, University of St. Andrews)

  • Honkapohja, Seppo

    ()

    (Bank of Finland)

We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks that push interest rates to the zero bound, a temporary fiscal stimulus or a policy of fiscal austerity, appropriately tailored in magnitude and duration, will insulate the economy from deflation traps. However “fiscal switching rules” that automatically kick in without discretionary fine tuning can be equally effective.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/BoF_DP_1227.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 27/2012.

as
in new window

Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 09 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2012_027
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. George Evans & Eran Guse & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Kiel Working Papers 1341, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 15714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja , Seppo, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectations and the liquidity trap," Research Discussion Papers 22/2003, Bank of Finland.
  4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?," CDMA Working Paper Series 201008, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  5. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
  6. Bennett McCallum, 2001. "Inflation targeting and the liquidity trap," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  7. Guido Ascari & Lorenza Rossi, 2012. "Trend Inflation and Firms Price‐Setting: Rotemberg Versus Calvo," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(563), pages 1115-1141, 09.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, March.
  11. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
  12. Bullard, James B., 2013. "Seven Faces of "The Peril"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 613-628.
  13. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6216, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
  15. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
  16. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA.
  17. R. Anton Braun & Lena Mareen Körber & Yuichiro Waki, 2012. "Some unpleasant properties of log-linearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Working Paper 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
  19. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
  20. Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March.
  21. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-71, July.
  23. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  24. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 14181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
  26. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  27. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis Without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 303-346, 05.
  28. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June.
  29. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2000. "Necessity of Transversality Conditions for Stochastic Problems," Discussion Paper Series 115, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  30. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, . "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
  31. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  32. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2003. "Necessity of the Transversality Condition for Stochastic Models with CRRA Utility," Discussion Paper Series 137, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  34. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  35. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  36. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  37. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
  38. Benjamin Keen & Yongsheng Wang, 2007. "What is a realistic value for price adjustment costs in New Keynesian models?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 789-793.
  39. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  40. Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Prices are Sticky After All," NBER Working Papers 16364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2012. "Learning in a Medium-Scale DSGE Model with Expectations Based on Small Forecasting Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 65-101, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2012_027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.