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Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market

  • Lambertini, Luisa

    ()

    (EPFL, College of Management)

  • Mendicino , Caterina

    ()

    (Banco de Portugal, Departamento Estudos Economicos)

  • Punzi , Maria Teresa

    ()

    (University of Nottingham)

Survey data suggests that news of changes in business conditions are significantly related to house prices and consumers' beliefs of favorable buying conditions in the housing market. This paper explores the transmission of "news shocks" as a source of boom-bust cycles in the housing market. News on shocks originated in different sectors of the economy can generate booms in the housing market in accordance with the average behavior in the data; expectations on monetary policy and in inflationary shocks that are not fulfilled can also lead to the observed subsequent macroeconomic recession. Investigating the role of the credit market for house market fluctuations we find that favorable credit conditions that are expected to be reversed in the near future generate boom-bust cycle dynamics in line with the most recent episode. Further, credit conditions also affect boom-bust cycles generated by news shocks originated in other sectors of the economy. In particular, lower loan-to-value ratios reduce the severity of expectations-driven cycles and the volatility of household debt, aggregate consumption and GDP.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/BoF_DP_1202.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 2/2012.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2012_002
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Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland

Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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