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Growth, expectations and tariffs

  • Honkapohja , Seppo

    ()

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Turunen, Arja H

    ()

    (University of New Orleans. Department of Economics and Finance)

  • Woodland, Alan D

    (University of New South Wales)

We study a many-country endogenous growth model in which decisions about innovation and new investment are influenced by growth expectations. Adaptive learning dynamics determine the country-specific short-run transition paths. The countries differ in basic structural parameters and may impose tariffs on imports of capital goods. Numerical experiments illustrate the adjustment dynamics that follow the use of tariffs. We show that countries that limit trade in capital goods can experience dynamic gains both in growth and in utility and that such gains persist longer the larger the structural advantages of the region that applies tariffs. Substantial differences in levels of innovation, consumption, output and utility can appear, and asymmetries in economic outcomes that were present before trade restrictions are made more severe.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/BoF_DP_1109.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 9/2011.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 20 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2011_009
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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  1. Chang, Tai Hsieh & Peter, J- Klenow, 2007. "Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India," MPRA Paper 35084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  2. Pol Antràs & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2009. "Organizations and Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 43-64, 05.
  3. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 961-87, December.
  4. Honkapohja, Seppo & Turunen-Red, Arja, 1999. "Complementarity, Growth and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  6. Baldwin, Richard E. & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 1998. "Global Income Divergence, Trade and Industrialisation: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," Working Paper Series 496, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  7. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
  8. Raja Kali & Fabio Mendez & Javier Reyes, 2007. "Trade structure and economic growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 245-269.
  9. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning stability in economics with heterogeneous agents," Working Paper Series 0120, European Central Bank.
  10. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005. "R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-77, February.
  11. Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making," Working Papers 523, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  12. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
  14. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and the Size of Countries," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1995, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  16. University of Iowa & Michael E. Waugh, 2007. "International Trade and Income Differences," 2007 Meeting Papers 492, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "The classical approach to convergence analysis," Economics Working Papers 117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  18. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Paul Romer, 1996. "Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Walz, Uwe, 1997. "Growth and Deeper Regional Integration in a Three-County Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 492-507, November.
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