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Financial interlinkages and risk of contagion in the Finnish interbank market

  • Toivanen, Mervi

    ()

    (Bank of Finland Research)

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    Using the maximum entropy method, this paper estimates the danger of contagion in the Finnish interbank market in 2005–2007 as well as the existence of contagion during a Finnish banking crisis. The contagion analysis of the early 1990s is able to predict the most troublesome and defaulting banks in the banking sector. The simulation results for 2005–2007 suggest that five of ten deposit banks are possible starting points for contagious effects. The magnitude of contagion is conditional on the first failing bank. In addition to large commercial banks, middle-sized banks also cause damaging domino effects. Over the last few years, the negative effects of contagion on the Finnish banking sector have been, on average, more limited than those of the early 1990s. The contagion is currently a low probability event in the Finnish interbank market.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0906netti.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 6/2009.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: 28 Jan 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2009_006
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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    1. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2007. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
    6. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    7. Christian Upper, 2007. "Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," BIS Working Papers 234, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Jeannette Müller, 2006. "Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February.
    9. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
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