Effects of unobserved defaults on correlation between probability of default and loss given default on mortgage loans
This paper demonstrates how the observed correlation between probability of default and loss given default depends on the fact that defaults in which collateral provides 100% recovery are not observed. Creditors see only the defaults of mortgagors who suffer from a fall in collateral value to less than the remaining loan principal. Consequently, the default data available to creditors amounts to a mere truncated sample from the underlying population of defaults. Correlation estimates based on such truncated samples are biased and differ substantially from estimates derived from representative non-truncated samples. Moreover, the observed correlation between default probability and loss given default is sensitive to the truncation point, which may explain the differences in correlation estimates found in the literature. This may also explain why correlation estimates seem to be specific to cycle phase.
|Date of creation:||21 Jan 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
- Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.
- David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999.
"An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
98-28, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- David B. Gross, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 319-347, March.
- David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," NBER Working Papers 8409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Erlenmaier, Ulrich & Gersbach, Hans, 2001. "Default probabilities and default correlations," Research Notes 01-5, Deutsche Bank Research.
- Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
- Paraskevi Dimou & Colin Lawrence & Alistair Milne, 2005. "Skewness of Returns, Capital Adequacy, and Mortgage Lending," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 135-161, October.
- Sanjiv Das, 2007. "Basel II: Correlation Related Issues," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 17-38, October.
- Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-25, August.
- H. Cairns & G. Pryce, 2005. "An Analysis of Mortgage Arrears Using the British Household Panel Survey," ERES eres2005_134, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Edward I. Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2002. "The link between default and recovery rates: effects on the procyclicality of regulatory capital ratios," BIS Working Papers 113, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jon Frye, 2000. "Collateral damage detected," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2009_003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.