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Market power and merger simulation in retail banking

  • Molnár, József

    ()

    (Bank of Finland Research)

This paper tests market power in the banking industry. Price-cost margins predicted by different oligopoly models are calculated using discrete-choice demand estimates of own-price and cross-price elasticities. These predicted price-cost margins are then compared with price-cost margins computed using observed interest rates and estimates of marginal costs. This paper is among the first to apply this methodology on a detailed, bank-level dataset from the retail banking sector. It extends on previous papers and illustrates the advantages of structural modelling by simulating a counterfactual merger experiment with a number of mergers, each of which involves two major banks, and studying the unilateral effect of the mergers on interest rates. This provides more evidence that concentration measures (such as the Herfindahl index) could be very misleading indicators of market power.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0804netti.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 4/2008.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 27 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2008_004
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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  1. Aviv Nevo, 2003. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Microeconomics 0303006, EconWPA.
  2. Allen N. Berger & Timothy H. Hannan, 1987. "The price-concentration relationship in banking," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. J.A. Bikker & K. Haaf, 2000. "Competition, concentration and their relationship: an empirical analysis of the banking industry," Research Series Supervision (discontinued) 30, Netherlands Central Bank, Directorate Supervision.
  5. Kim, Moshe, 1985. "Scale Economies in Banking: A Methodological Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 96-102, February.
  6. De Bandt, Olivier & Davis, E. Philip, 2000. "Competition, contestability and market structure in European banking sectors on the eve of EMU," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1045-1066, June.
  7. S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  8. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
  9. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, November.
  10. Hannan, Timothy H & Berger, Allen N, 1991. "The Rigidity of Prices: Evidence from the Banking Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 938-45, September.
  11. Astrid A. Dick, 2002. "Demand estimation and consumer welfare in the banking industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. József Molnár & Márton Nagy & Csilla Horváth, 2007. "A Structural Empirical Analysis of Retail Banking Competition: the Case of Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2007/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  13. Robert M. Adams & Lars-Hendrik Röller & Robin C. Sickles, 2002. "Market Power in Outputs and Inputs: An Empirical Application to Banking," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-33, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  14. Corts, Kenneth S., 1998. "Conduct parameters and the measurement of market power," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 227-250, November.
  15. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  16. Nevo, Aviv, 1998. "Identification of the oligopoly solution concept in a differentiated-products industry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 391-395, June.
  17. Ivaldi, Marc & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "Quantifying the Effects from Horizontal Mergers in European Competition Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2697, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Neven, Damien & Roller, Lars-Hendrik, 1999. "An aggregate structural model of competition in the European banking industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 1059-1074, October.
  19. Bresnahan, Timothy F., 1982. "The oligopoly solution concept is identified," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 87-92.
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