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Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons

Using European panel data and GMM system estimation, we explore the empirical performance of the standard three-equation New Keynesian macro model under different informational assumptions. As a benchmark, we consider the performance of the model under rational expectations and revised (final) data. Alternatively, instead of imposing rational expectations hypothesis we use real- time information, ie Consensus Economics survey data, to generate empirical proxies for expectations in the model and the current output gap in the Taylor rule. We demonstrate that, contrary to the assumption of rational expectations, the errors in measured expectations and real-time current output gaps are positively autocorrelated. We produce evidence that the use of real-time variables (including measured expectations) improves the empirical performance of the New Keynesian model. Relaxation of the rational expectations hypothesis makes a noticeable difference for the parameters of the New Keynesian model, especially in the Taylor rule.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0714netti.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 14/2007.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 03 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2007_014
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  2. Klaus Adam, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
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  4. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Research Discussion Papers 29/2002, Bank of Finland.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1941, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  8. Paloviita , Maritta & Virén , Matti, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 6/2005, Bank of Finland.
  9. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Athanasios Orphanides and Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gaps in Real Time," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 247, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
  14. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA.
  16. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
  17. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
  18. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  19. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
  20. Paloviita , Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
  21. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  22. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  23. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2009. "The role of inflation expectations in the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1671-1675.
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