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Household loan loss risk in Finland – estimations and simulations with micro data

  • Herrala, Risto

    ()

    (Bank of Finland Monetary Policy and Research/Monitoring)

  • Kauko, Karlo

    ()

    (Bank of Finland Research)

This discussion paper presents a microsimulation model of household distress. We use logit analysis to estimate the extent to which a household’s risk of being financially distressed depends on net income after tax and loan servicing costs. The impact of assumed macroeconomic shocks on this net income concept is calculated at the household level. The microsimulation model is used to simulate both the number of distressed households and their aggregate debt in various macroeconomic scenarios. The simulations indicate that household credit risks to banks are relatively well contained.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0705netti.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 5/2007.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 08 May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2007_005
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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  1. Cox, Donald & Jappelli, Tullio, 1993. "The Effect of Borrowing Constraints on Consumer Liabilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 197-213, May.
  2. Jappelli, Tullio, 1990. "Who Is Credit Constrained in the U.S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-34, February.
  3. Ana Del-Rí­o & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Bank of England working papers 262, Bank of England.
  4. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(3), pages 615-643.
  5. Nuno C. Martins & Ernesto Villanueva, 2003. "The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program," Economics Working Papers 713, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Silvia Magri, 2002. "Italian households' debt: determinants of demand and supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 454, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
  8. Heikki Kauppi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Predicting U.S. Recessions with Dynamic Binary Response Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-791, November.
  9. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 266, Bank of England.
  10. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004.
  11. Ana Del-Rí­o & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Bank of England working papers 263, Bank of England.
  12. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Household Debt and Financial Assets: Evidence from Great Britain, Germany and the United States," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  13. Duca John V. & Rosenthal Stuart S., 1993. "Borrowing Constraints, Household Debt, and Racial Discrimination in Loan Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 77-103, October.
  14. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
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