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The effect of a transaction tax on exchange rate volatility

  • Lanne , Markku

    ()

    (Economics Department, European University Institute)

  • Vesala , Timo

    (RUESG/Department of Economics, University of Helsinki)

We argue that a transaction tax is likely to amplify, not dampen, volatility in the foreign exchange mar-kets. Our argument stems from the decentralised trading practice and the presumable discrepancy be-tween ‘informed’ and ‘uninformed’ traders’ valuations. Since informed traders’ valuations are likely to be less dispersed, a transaction tax penalises informed trades disproportionately, leading to increased volatil-ity. Empirical support for this prediction is found by investigating the effect of transaction costs on the volatility of DEM/USD and JPY/USD returns. High-frequency data are used and an increase in transac-tion costs is found to have a significant positive effect on volatility.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0611netti.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 11/2006.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2006_011
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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  2. Jon Danielsson & Richard Payne, 1999. "Real Trading Patterns and Prices in Spot Foreign Exchange Markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp320, Financial Markets Group.
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  7. Hau, Harald, 2002. "The Role of Transaction Costs for Financial Volatility: Evidence from the Paris Bourse," CEPR Discussion Papers 3651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  9. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Trade Execution Costs and Market Quality after Decimalization," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 747-777, December.
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  11. Jones, Charles M & Seguin, Paul J, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Price Volatility: Evidence from Commission Deregulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 728-37, September.
  12. Robert Z. Aliber & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Shu Yan, 2003. "Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions May Increase Volatility," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 481-510.
  13. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
  14. Ingrid M. Werner, 2003. "Comment on `Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions may Increase Volatility'," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 511-514.
  15. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  16. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  17. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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